Game Theory in Big Tech and Global Politics: A Social Impact Analysis in two Papers
- Mariano Bernardez
- Feb 23
- 2 min read
Updated: Mar 6
By: Mariano Bernardez, CEO Kaufman Center
MAMAA, OpenAI, and Elon Musk’s Business Strategies: Zero-Sum vs. Non-Zero-Sum Games and Maximin vs. Minimax Strategies
Abstract
Mariano Bernardez, introduces two papershe that present his research for the Kaufman Center Think Tank applying tools of Game Theory and Megaplanning to the competitive landscape of Big Tech (Paper Big Tech Game) and US Global Politics From Truman to Trump (Paper Truman to Trump).
Bernardez papers combine an analysis of their macro (company-POTUS level) and mega (market-wide, world order) social impacts using Roger Kaufman’s mega-planning framework.
The two studies by Bernardez reveal that non-zero-sum maximin, and positive social impact strategies generate long-term industry-wide expansion and sustainable market leadership, creating positive externalities for entire ecosystems.
Conversely, zero-sum maximin strategies offer high-risk, high-reward dominance, often concentrating power and provoking regulatory concerns and global instability.
By integrating Game Theory and mega planning, Bernardez demonstrates that strategies fostering industry growth and multi-stakeholder benefits generate the most sustainable competitive advantages in business and long term stability and growth in geopolitical decision-making.
Paper One:The Big Tech Game
This paper by Mariano Bernardez examines how Big Tech companies like Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Elon Musk's ventures utilize game theory strategies—zero-sum vs. non-zero-sum games and maximin vs. minimax strategies—to compete and innovate.
The study categorizes business moves into aggressive takeovers (zero-sum maximin), collaborative industry expansion (non-zero-sum maximin), and risk-mitigation strategies (minimax).
It finds that non-zero-sum maximin strategies, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and OpenAI’s GPT series, are the most sustainable and beneficial for market growth, while zero-sum strategies (e.g., Meta's Instagram acquisition) create short-term dominance but risk regulatory pushback.
The paper concludes that companies prioritizing industry-wide benefits over direct competition tend to achieve long-term leadership, aligning with Kaufman’s Mega Planning model of social impact.
Paper Two: The US Foreign Policy Game: From Truman to Trump
This article applies game theory analysis to U.S. foreign policy, particularly under Donald Trump, comparing his approach to previous presidents from Truman to Biden.
Reseach and comparison of all postwar POTUS using Game Theory conceots shows that Trump and Reagan used a maximin strategy—taking high-risk, high-reward moves to force diplomatic realignments, such as Trump’s trade wars and the Abraham Accords.
In contrast, Biden and Obama followed a minimax strategy, prioritizing risk containment and diplomacy over disruptive geopolitical shifts.
The study suggests that Trump’s transactional, high-stakes negotiation tactics, often labeled as “chaotic,” actually followed a structured maximin game strategy, reshaping global relations by forcing adversaries to renegotiate from weaker positions.
The analysis places Trump’s foreign policy within a broader historical framework, showing that risk-taking maximin strategies often lead to transformative geopolitical shifts, but risk global disorder and turmoil, while minimax strategies maintain stability but limit strategic gains.
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