Globalization or Segmentation? Post-2025 Scenarios New Paper By Mariano Bernardez
Will the global economy continue its march toward fragmentation, or will mounting economic pressures shift back toward cooperation? As trade barriers rise and geopolitical divisions harden, the consequences of economic segmentation are becoming increasingly apparent.
But how deep will the impact be? Could prolonged fragmentation trigger inflation and recession on a global scale?
If so, how will policymakers, multinational corporations, and financial markets react?
And if segmentation isn’t permanent, what signals should we look for to anticipate a shift back toward a more integrated world?
Mariano Bernardez has just published a new paper with the results of an in depth research to analyze likely scenarios and specific strategies for 2025-2029.
What makes unique this paper is that it goes beyond the common themes of looking back to causes or making forecasts to analyze specifuc scenarios for likely alternatives for reagion, industries and presenting concrete strategies to deal with them.
Bernardez, recalls Churchill quote about that "we can be sure that americans will do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives", Well, Bernardez follows that advice and analize the most likely scenarios, starting with fragmentation and protectionism creating inflation and recession that in turn create pressure for a return to a new forms of gobalization. The paper considers how the first Trump administration made several U turns after negative results of tariff wars with China.
Mariano Bernárdez is an international management and government consultant who specializes in developing new businesses, markets, and value chains and improving organizational and societal performance. He is the director of the Kaufman Center Think Tank, which promotes groundbreaking research and best practices for improving the societal performance of organizations and communities
Author of seven books and multiple seminal papers in the field of organizational and social performance, Bernardez analyzes the practical alternatives for organizations and governments to navigate the turbulences ahead in the Trump 2.0 period.
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