A new paper by Mariano Bernardez: Method to the madness: Using Game Theory to Analyze POTUS Foreign Policy Negotiations – From Truman to Trump
By: Mariano Bernardez, PhD, CPT
Mariano Bernardez has published a new paper analyzing how Trump and previous POTUS use diferent negotiation styles and strategies in their foreign policy,
Bernardez explains in the papaer that in the history of the US presidential foreign policy negotiations, “madness” is a common adjective in op-eds penned by scholars or foreign policy columnists analyzing POTUS initiatives from a risk-averse perspective that is a sure bet on readers’ default position.
Bernardez's makes a thorough historical analysis of real-world US presidential strategies fprm Truman top Trump's first and second term. Bernardez research reveals that risk-taking is far more frequent and relevant than usually believed. According to Bernardez historical research, it seems that Oval Office madness” seems to be more of a “POTUS” office syndrome, from TR’s “showing a bug smile and carrying a big stick” to JFK’s Mutually Assured Destruction[1] (M.A.D.) to Reagan’s Star Wars or Trump’s menacing annexation of Panama, Canada, Greenland, or Gaza.
His critics have often described Donald J. Trump's career in business and politics as “reckless,” “gambling,” and “madness.” Thirteen memoirs published by some of Trump’s 27 fired cabinet members and advisors[i] and 150 books about his first term[ii] use these terms to describe the transactional methods of the unconventional and disruptive 45th and 47th POTUS.
Yet the theory of “chaos” and “madness” is not the best approach to analyzing a transactional and disruptive presidency. There is a method in a high-stakes poker game's apparent recklessness and madness in a multimillion-dollar business deal or a landmark foreign policy negotiation.
Bernardez shows that Game theory provides a powerful analytical framework for understanding geopolitical strategies, particularly those employed by leaders such as Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan, who often pursue aggressive "maximin" strategies, and Joe Biden and Barack Obama, whose approaches align more with "minimax" principles.
This paper explores these contrasting strategic paradigms through historical and contemporary examples, using key bargaining moves and policy decisions as case studies.
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